The grandchildren of today's skiers are likely to know the white peaks of Switzerland only from the wrappers of chocolate bars. A remarkable report on climate change that will be handed to European governments this week will say that the effect of rising temperatures will mean an end to snow across large areas of the Alps.
The report, by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, will predict the disappearance of 75 per cent of Alpine glaciers within 45 years, a surge in avalanches and floods and the closure of all but the highest ski resorts.
The 130-page document, which is the first to assess the economic impact of global warming on European leisure, comes as resorts are struggling to get their skiing seasons off the ground. Today's Snowshoe Festival in 45 French resorts has been downgraded to 'a ramble' and, according to trade unions, 40,000 French seasonal workers have still not begun work.
Shardul Agrawala, author of 'Climate Change in the European Alps', said the report shows the impact of global warming is already very real. 'There tends to be a view that climate change is decades away and that it will affect faraway places. But if you look at the Alps, whose recent warming has advanced at three times the average world rate, you can tell it is happening already.'
A foretaste of how skiing is likely to be affected is revealed by current snow levels across the Alps. Very little fell before Christmas, leaving skiers facing barren slopes. 'There was a major fall at New Year but since then the weather has been mild,' said Betony Garner of the Ski Club of Great Britain. 'Very few resorts below 1,500 metres have much snow. Many people who booked in advance will have been disappointed and in the next few years I think we are going to see people holding off until they see the snow reports. Many resorts, particularly low-lying ones in Austria and Italy, are already thinking of moving into new markets, such as spas. However, skiers will keep trying to find snow no matter how difficult it is to get to.'
Victor Saunders, a British mountaineering and ski guide who lives in Les Houches, a resort near Mont Blanc, said there were fears that the Kandahar race, one of the fixtures on the world cup circuit, may never be held again.
'I went up to Cogne, a resort on the Italian side of Mont Blanc. It was 16C, spring weather in January. Each year it is getting warmer.'
The OECD report, using scientific assessments of the progress of climate change, aims to guide governments in policy-making to avert a human, environmental and economic disaster for an industry that caters for 70 million tourists and is worth €50bn a year.
'Governments have been playing catch-up. There is a need to co-operate across borders and adapt,' said Agrawala. He claimed that within 20 years ski resorts below 1,050 metres - such as Schladming and Kitzbuhel in Austria and Garmisch-Partenkirchen in Germany - will no longer be viable. In 100 years' time he expects only the highest resorts, such as Val Thorens (2,300m) or Tignes (2,100m), to be able to offer reasonable guarantees of snow.
'Winter sports will become much more of an elite pursuit. Downhill skiing will also become more dangerous because it is going to snow more than it does today at high altitude [because of increased precipitation], thus increasing the avalanche risk.'
The OECD report forecasts the death of the German skiing industry in favour of the Swiss Alps and the French purpose-built resorts, such as La Plagne, Les Arcs, Tignes and Alpe d'Huez. 'The losers will be the small resorts, which are often at low altitude. The winners will be vast ski conglomerates on the American model,' said Agrawala.
The economic damage caused by climate change will be accompanied by environmental changes. More rain and melting glaciers will bring erosion and floods on an unprecedented scale. Agrawala warned: 'The increasing trend to mechanically grade pistes - to remove bumps and allow skiing on thinner snow cover - enhances erosion.'
He also predicted that species would die out. 'There are more than 30,000 animal species in the Alps and 13,000 plant species. As climate changes, they move upwards. But there comes a point when they cannot move any higher.'
Agrawala denied that the OECD findings were alarmist or exaggerated. 'They are real. Many of the aspects of climate change are locked [in] - they will happen. Climate change is like a super-tanker; it takes time to stop. Measures taken today by governments will only be of benefit years from now. But we already know what is going to happen in the near future.'
Peak profile:
· The Alps account for 85 per cent of Europe's skiing area. The winter sports industry there is worth £64bn per year.
· Four of the warmest years in the region since records began were recorded in the past 12 years: 1994, 2000, 2002 and 2003.
· The range forms an arc from Nice to Vienna of about 1,200km (745 miles)
· The Alps, aka Europe's water tower, are the source of three main rivers, the Rhine, the Rhone and the Po.
· About 70 million people visit the Alps every year.
· From 1850 to 1980, glaciers in the region lost 30 to 40 per cent of their area. Since 1980 a further 20 per cent of the ice has been lost
· The summer of 2003 led to the loss of a further 10 per cent. By 2050 about 75 per cent of the glaciers in the Swiss Alps are likely to have disappeared, rising to 100 per cent in 2100.